I am wandering these days thinking about the foremost heightened issue engulfing the whole world- The Egypt’s Demand of Democratic governmental set-up. The exquisiteness of this ongoing war (though war is never exquisite) can be understood in terms, that every time when there is anarchy in the system, dialectical materialism concept of the Marx comes into picture more often. As per Carl Marx, whenever there are certain set of the contradiction in the nature and society than it leads to the change in the system and a better form the system is demanded so as to meet everybody’s need. Infact, contradiction is the root cause of the change and motion in the universe. And hence Dialectics is the logic of contradiction.
I am not trying to shore up any sides of systems, not even trying to advocate the kind of system that is demanded is right or the system that exists is correct. But what is required to understand here is that what actually is demanded by the Egyptian though is correct given checker of upcoming system manages the show in a manner beneficial for the people of Egypt and also for the World’s Political and Social systems.
The hostilities that began on to come into show from 24th Jan 2011 have its roots lying in past years of development. And similar sort of developments had been taking place in multiple nations with Monarchial or Autocratic form of government. Recently, countries like Tunisia, Yemen and Jordan, have seen similar form of changes around their country. In Tunisia every individual joined their hands against the totalitarian government and have overthrown an unmanaged –non-performing-authoritarian rule. A similar form of upsurge has been seen in the countries like Jordan and Yemen, where King has to leave the throne against the demand of the Democratic form of the system.
A country being suffering from continuous inflation, Unemployment and overtly corrupt political system and administration, which is an abuse in itself- Egyptian are not in a mood to look back and wanting the regime of Hosni Mubarak to be out thrown from not just from the seat but also from the nation. Countrymen are asking ‘Go Mubarak’ complaining “Kaifaya”- Enough. It is important to note here that though country has been performing better compared to countries of the similar capacities but more importantly situation on other front is turning out be more and more awry.
The 1st Feb 2011, saw a repetition of history, routing that of martin Luther King Million march against racism in America during the discrimination in USA of African-American nationals in onset 19th century. A similar form of the Million March was a spectacle on this day in the city of Cairo in Egypt, against the 30 years old government of Hosni Mubarak, demanding the fall of the government. A march wherein people of all segment and of all ages, even children and women, came together with their non-diminishing cause that ‘The Regime must go’ and changes are demanded with nothing less than the dethronement of the Hosni Mubarak not only from government and seat, but also from the country. The kind of protest is unique in itself because the importance lies with the protest is a Mass protest without any backing of any political figure, and it’s a Public Protest in true sense. Though there sounds of Muslim Brotherhood, banned in the country, to take the advantage of the situation, as Army Chief, Mr Sami Enan is considered to be possible replacement of the MR Mubarak’s unseated post. Though, Mohammed Elberdei has turned out to be a bigger man against the Anti-government demonstration. With the issues having agendas of growth and corruption and people of Egypt are asking nothing less than the Government immediate removal. Though it is also important to notice that people of the country are demanding that none of the present ruler or opponents to be there, governing them. They don’t want Mubarak is true but are not even willing either Muslim Brotherhood or El Berdei to look after the biggest throne of the country and managing the show. Though it is demanded that not only government should be out thrown but there should be a complete revival of the country’s governmental system not just by management but also by the kind of the selection of the government and the leaders in the country, in short a form of government which is Democratic is all aspects.
The upheaval have been accompanied with multiple set of changes ranging from, complete ban of Internet and more recently the Media also, schools and colleges along with businesses remained closed. Citizens of all the foreign nations are getting back to their nest seeing the chaotic situation in the country. Since all businesses are shut downed seeing the unwanted situation, the tourism has been impacted in the similar fashion. And all the other aspect of the economy is no different. Authorities have tried to impact the transportation system to stop the protest from swelling further. But the sprawling demonstration of hunger for Democratic set-up with the dethronement of the present government is not going to satiate unless the demand of the people the country is not met. The Revolution of Nile is considered to be correct with its legitimacy demanding a system based on the equality and freedom of choosing the better form of government, administration and most importantly, A Better Life. ‘Clear Structure & clear Leadership’ is the motto that is thrusting the people of Egypt.
Egypt Revolution and World Politics: With the announcement of the Mr Mubarak on not taking step-back to leave the Presidential Post till next election to be held in September this year, the political drama seems to gets more and more graving, where people of Egypt are asking nothing less than “Leave Mubarak”- Mubarak to end his autocratic regime from the country.
But Drama is also at least taking into shape in the current world’s political scenario as well, where one can see the savior of World Peace ‘The UNO’ as non living its character in true manner. Initially, even the major power in this regard namely, United States of America, who always been an unasked helping hand for the nation(s) in trouble is all unvoiced against what is taking into shape in the Egypt, as it understand that its steps supporting either sides would have huge consequential impact on its image as the originator of Democracy, in fact may be tainted as supporter of something unacceptable.
Though USA is not only entity into this ‘Play Safe Mode’, India is also carrying the similar kind of the strategic move, which more of neutral in the nature. With Mr. S M Krishna, the Foreign Minister of the present Indian Government made an announcement which can adjudged as balance in its drafting. It was said by him in with talks to media, that India has kept its eye open on the current changes and developments in the Egypt, and is deeply considerate about the kind of development taking place. But it expected that whatever turns up finally would be in best favor the people of the Egypt.
But recently, on 4th Feb 2011 the ‘Departure Day’ of Hosni Mubarak from Egypt and its Big Throne, USA and India and other Big Nations started criticizing the undergoing of this bad fated nation. The cause is now backed by them saying that Hosni Mubarak should go, but America is playing Diplomatic tricks by saying that they don’t want Hosni Mubarak to be tossed out uprightly from the Egypt and throne. Their logic behind the same is that if it happens then the situation in the country may worsen. Though the point is correct to support the cause but what if the huge protest demanding the change of the system of anarchy by citizens sprawls more large and if million march coverts into “Millions March” and this silent protest, though have claimed more than 150 lives and more than 1200 injured, but still it has not yet taken a mass bloody battle against the government, if ‘Khuda Na Khasta’ (God Mercy) it happens then what’s the requirement slow change to take place and what will other nations loose except some sympathy words, but the actual loser will be Egypt only- Politically and Socially. But recently on account of the international pressure from across world has caused the Mr Mubarak to bend a little but he isn’t ready to leave the seat. And moreover, isn’t it interesting that The Most Powerful country is unnecessarily interfering into the matter of the Egypt, if they are truly bothered about playing God in creating peace across nations. If it really feel that way to create the sensible and responsible role of maintaining peace than wont it be better if it focus towards contentious situation between Israel and Palestine, Bhutan Immigration to India, China unduly taking advantage of India’s liberal Policies and intruding into the regions of North East………….but here the interest of the Big Daddy nation vanishes because these are not strategically important nation for them, Infact some of these nations are equally powerful in their strength. And the major reason turns out is the Oil Enrichment f the nation, if it favors the new government it can impose its policy there at a newly formed government and get the multi-dimensional benefits.
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ECONOMY OF REVOLUTION:
This demand of the democratic form the government has certainly mounting day by day turning into a Mass Movement. And the heat of the tussle is not only being felt just by the people of the country, rather the war of democracy is engulfing the lives of billions of people in one form or other. Exact calculations depicting the impact of the war could not be estimated at the moment. But in present context, Oil telecommunications, and core sectors are going to be impacted badly. Let meander through some of the major impact that this war could lead to:
Oil Crisis: Major chunk of the supply of the crude oils comes from the Middle East region of Asia region. The Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Yemen, Kuwait, Dubai etc and other nations of the Arab world is major supplier to world’s economy. Egypt controls the Suez Canal and world shipping and energy supplies could be sharply affected if use of the canal is disrupted. More than 35,000 ships pass through the Suez annually, with 2,700 of them crude oil tankers. Due to hostile situation in the Egypt, the Suez Canal connecting the western world from the Middle East Countries, the all kinds of trading had turned out to be an awry faced.
And thereby, recently the impact has been seen in terms the supply of the petroleum and related products across the world leading to the steep hike of the crude oil per barrel from $97 to $100!!. This phenomenon is back into picture only after 2008, when the price of the crude oil has shifted upwardly to more than $100/barrel.
Picture Reference: http://cdnedge.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east
Tourism: Tourism in the main source of revenue in the nation where it accounts for more than 5% to the country’s Income. And due to war like situation in the country, government of every nation has asked its citizens to not to visit Egypt, thereby the economy’s major occupation has suffered a major setback. Not just shattering the major occupation but also causing a loss of Foreign Exchange which travels to the country through the route of tourism.
Investors’ Worry: With the outburst of the Home- war in the country, the investors from the Saudi Regions have started selling their share-holding because the confrontation between public and Government has created an atmosphere of uncertainty among investors, thereby forcing them to get rid of Shares as soon possible. Investor across whole of the world planned to stop seeing towards this part of the Egypt Story because of its Unending drama. Indian, business biggies have temporarily shut downed their operations in the country seeing the turmoil in the country and hence movement’s significant connotation can be understood that, it’s not only hampering its own nation but also brunt of the situation is being felt by other economies too, in one way or other.
NEXT TO FOLLOW IN THE COUNTRY-WHAT AND WHO:
Hosni Mubarak had been backed by USA and other countries despite autocratic regime carried by him since past 30 years. Backing was supported because of the illusion created by the Hosni Mubarak in the name of radical forces, namely Muslim Brotherhood; if he leaves the throne then radicalized elements would take undue advantage causing the worst results favoring country. And he had been able to convince the western world on account of this logic. And USA would have never been in favor of any nation being run by Islamic- Radical-government be it democratic in nature, rather autocratic non-democratic set up was considered favorable for themselves, strategically.
But seeing the present upsurge, the claims of Hosni Mubarak has been now declined in the favor of democratic form of government. The demand arising from the streets of Cairo is asking nothing less than dismantling of the system and the King. As per certain activist over the Tahreer Square, they don’t want any one among the present league of big leaders to preside them. Since, they had a point that as they not being headed by any Figurative Entity then why should they be given chance to lead us.
Though there are many Contenders for the Biggest Sit of the Nation; and some of the names are;
Noble Laureate Mohammed El Bardei- the Front runner in the race of the Presidential post in the country. He has turned up as the most influencing figure, talking about democratic set-up in the country since his return back to country. Born in Egypt in 1942, Mr ElBaradei studied law at the University of Cairo. He began his career in the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1964, and worked in Egypt's permanent mission to the UN both in New York and in Geneva. On his active participation the non-nuclear weapon proliferation activities, he was awarded with Noble Peace Prize in the year 2005.
Earlier being accountable for the nuclear matters of the US government though was responsible for several of suggestions to Bush regime, but was strict anti-activist for the proliferation of the nuclear weapons.
In the picture of current war-like situation he has emerged as the leading voice of the common man out there at Egypt. He is the one can be made accountable for the newly born and developed state of Democratic Egypt. His being at the Presidential Position will certainly infuse a new blood of development in the country and hopefully things will start taking good shape in more democratic manner.
But his being unaware with the ground realities of the Egypt and further being non-experienced with much of the political criticalities, he will certainly find his way slightly difficult to reach the big chair.
Muslim Brotherhood- Banned Radical Group: If something bad is not fated to Egypt then this Radical Islamic group influenced from the Arab world should reach to the Presidential Post, though they presently are serving as mere joint group of the parties protesting against the government. If they reach to the Big Position then nothing else then further declination of the state can be expected.
The Muslim Brotherhood, or al-Ikhwan al-Muslimun, is Egypt's oldest and largest Islamist organization. Founded by Hassan al-Banna in the 1920s, the group has influenced Islamist movements around the world with its model of political activism combined with Islamic charity work. Though currently they banned in the country seeing their extremist kind of activities they were imposed with a ban. And if they come in to power they will ensure formation of a government based on the Islamic Law, and this prove to be deteriorating for Egypt. And the purpose for which this revolution is being created these days will turn out to be in vein. People of the country asking for their “Rights” in the nation of their virtue, but what if they do not get any access to their normal lives, and if Muslim Brother Hood comes into power then this is certainly going to happen.
Omar Suleiman Vice President-Egypt: Omar Suleiman born in 1935, has been though many of the higher ranks in the Army of Egypt and was an important mediator while negotiations for the Gaza-Stripe took place between Israel and Palestine. He has been emerging largely in past few years, though had adorned multiple high ranks in the Army of his nation, the biggest he served was Army General. Despite all these he has been stereotyped as the man closer to the Hosni Mubarak. If he comes to the position then people of Egypt might get a better leader in him having the ground realities into his knowledge, because he has served this nation since past many years and understands the every nuances of the political set up of the country.
Though the possibility in against of his position can be seen in terms of his experience as the political man, this is the only platform where he actually lacks. Though he has the most powerful reach in the country and can be considered as the possible Kingmaker, if he could not put himself to the Presidential position.
HOPE FOR THE BEST:
It’s important to understand here that Egypt is looking for a democratic set up in the country that had been ruled for past 30 years in more of the autocratic comportment. Many chapters are yet to unfold; many new changes are yet to be unveiled in the country. The Country of Pharaohs is looking for a man, who would not only look after the ruins of theirs but could also help the country to grow as per the aspirations of the people of the nation.
Kaisar Ali
PGDM(Marketing), Economics(Hons)
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Reference:
- War On terror News: Economic-Effects
- News articles: TOI, Hindustan Times
- BBC Website: http://www.bbc.co.uk
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